Short answer: Statewide, Florida’s housing market has slowed but has not fallen apart. According to Florida Realtors, single-family sales dipped in September 2026 while the median price edged up. Mortgage rates are higher than a year ago, though they have eased for four weeks in a row. Conditions differ a lot by property type and by town.
I’m Linda Reynolds, and I’m a numbers person at heart. When people ask me what is happening to the Florida market, I like to start with the data from official sources and then talk about what it can and can’t tell you. Here is what I found this week. I’m not predicting where prices go next, because nobody can do that reliably.
What the statewide numbers say
Florida Realtors released its September 2026 report on October 16. Here are the headline figures.
| Measure (Sept. 2026) | Single-family | Condo-townhouse |
|---|---|---|
| Closed sales | 20,537 (down 3.5% from a year earlier) | 7,179 (down 0.1%) |
| Median sale price | $415,000 (up 1.2%) | $293,500 (down 1.8%) |
| Months of supply | 4.4 | 7.7 |
Florida Realtors also noted that the single-family median price has now risen year over year for seven straight months, even as new pending single-family sales fell by more than 7.5%. In plain terms, fewer homes are going under contract, but the typical sale price has not dropped.
Why sales have slowed: mortgage rates
Florida Realtors’ chief economist pointed to higher mortgage rates as the main reason sales have cooled. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, released November 12, 2026, put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.11%, down from 7.18% the week before and the fourth weekly decline in a row. A year earlier it averaged 6.24%. Rates reached about 7.4% in early October, so they have come down, but they are still higher than last year.
Here is what that difference can look like on a monthly payment. This is my own arithmetic for illustration only, on a $300,000 loan with a 30-year term, and it covers principal and interest only (not taxes, insurance or HOA dues):
- At 6.24%: about $1,845 a month
- At 7.11%: about $2,018 a month
- Difference: about $173 a month
Your own rate will depend on your credit, down payment and lender, so please get quotes from a few lenders. The Freddie Mac average is a guide, not an offer.
Insurance: a different story than a couple of years ago
Insurance is a big part of the monthly cost of owning a Florida home. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) reports that the average homeowners premium in the admitted market, including wind coverage, is $3,736 (data as of September 2026). Citizens Property Insurance said its 2026 rates for homeowners policies would fall by an average of 8.8%, and that its policy count has dropped to about 336,000, down 76% from the October 2023 peak of 1.41 million. In September 2026, Florida Realtors also reported that OIR approved rate reductions between 3.2% and 10.4% for four insurers.
Those are statewide averages. Your premium depends on the home’s age, roof, location and coverage, so a local insurance agent is the right person to ask for a real quote before you make an offer.
Condos are their own market
The table above shows condos with about 7.7 months of supply, compared with 4.4 for single-family homes, and a median price that slipped slightly. Part of the story is Florida’s post-Surfside rules. Under HB 913 (effective July 1, 2025), condominium buildings of three or more habitable stories must have a milestone inspection and a structural integrity reserve study, and associations can no longer waive reserve funding for those structural items. The Florida Senate’s bill summary lays out the details.
If you are looking at a condo, ask for the association’s most recent reserve study, milestone inspection report (if required), budget and any approved special assessments. Your real estate attorney can explain what those documents mean for you.
What about our corner of the Tampa Bay area?
Local numbers can differ from the state’s. Hillsborough County’s single-family median sale price was $430,000 in July 2026, unchanged from July 2025, according to the Stellar MLS data published by Pinellas Realtor Organization. The same series showed about 3.7 months of supply in June 2026. For a closer look at homes in Wimauma or Sun City Center real estate, remember that a single street or community can behave very differently from the county average. Home type, HOA or CDD fees, age and condition all change the picture.
If you want more detail on days on market and pricing, I wrote about it in Why Are Houses Not Selling in Florida Right Now? and about timing in Should You Buy a Home in Florida Right Now?
What this means for buyers and sellers (options, not predictions)
- If you are buying: Get pre-approval quotes from at least two or three lenders, compare the full monthly cost (loan payment, taxes, insurance, HOA or CDD), and ask what rate buydowns or seller credits are available. My free buyer guide is at reynoldsrealty.com/firsthome.
- If you are selling: Price from recent comparable sales in your own neighborhood, not from headlines. Ask for a written plan on pricing and marketing. You can see a starting estimate at reynoldsrealty.com/homevalue.
- If you are waiting: That is a legitimate choice too. Keep an eye on rates and local inventory, and talk with a lender about what you would need in order to be ready.
Frequently asked questions
Are Florida home prices falling?
Statewide, the single-family median sale price was $415,000 in September 2026, up 1.2% from a year earlier. The condo-townhouse median was $293,500, down 1.8%. Individual towns and price ranges vary.
Are mortgage rates coming down?
Freddie Mac’s 30-year average fell for four straight weeks to 7.11% as of November 12, 2026, but it is still above the 6.24% of a year earlier. I can’t tell you where rates will go from here.
Is the Florida insurance market improving?
Regulators and Citizens report lower rate filings and a much smaller Citizens policy count than in 2023. Your own quote is what matters, so ask a licensed insurance agent.
Where can I see the data myself?
Florida Realtors posts its monthly market reports online, and the sources below are the ones I used. The next statewide release is scheduled for November 16, 2026.
This is general information, not legal, tax, lending or insurance advice. For your situation, please ask a lender, attorney, CPA or insurance agent.
If you’d like help with this, call or text me at 941-737-6562 or reach out through reynoldsrealty.com.
Sources
- Florida Realtors, “Florida housing market holds steady in September” (Oct. 16, 2026)
- Florida Realtors, September and 3Q 2026 news release
- Florida Realtors / Associated Press on Freddie Mac survey (Nov. 12, 2026)
- Florida Office of Insurance Regulation, Property Insurance Market overview (data as of Sept. 2026)
- Citizens Property Insurance, 2026 rate announcement (March 2026)
- Florida Realtors, “Florida approves more home insurance rate cuts” (Sept. 2026)
- Florida Senate, CS/CS/HB 913 bill summary (2025)
- Pinellas Realtor Organization, Hillsborough STAR Monthly Statistics, July 2026
Linda Reynolds | Reynolds Realty Gulf Coast
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